By Michael Bell
As I was time limited when taking my first statistical look at “The Coming Evangelical Collapse“, I wanted to follow up with a few more observations about some of Michael Spencer’s statements:
1. Denominations will shrink, even vanish.
Much to my surprise, the decline in evangelicals in the U.S. has already begun. The Association of Religious Data Archives (ARDA) lets you generate maps to visibly see the changes. The maps shown here show the difference in Evangelicals between 1990 and 2000. Note how the colors have lightened over 10 years, particularly in the south-east.
You can visit the ARDA site to create your own maps on a national, regional, and/or denominational level.
When we look at the age composition of churches in the data from the American Religious Identity Survey (ARIS), it is clear that those who will be impacted the most will be those denominations who call themselves Baptist. The most significant growth is coming from those Christians who say they have no denominational affiliation. Two thirds of these are under the age of fifty. It is clear from the data that there is and will be a move away from denominational identification.
2. Fewer and fewer evangelical churches will survive and thrive.
According to the National Congregations Study 50% of churches in the U.S. now (2006-2007) have a congregation fewer than 75 on a Sunday morning. This is down from a median of 80 in 1998. While these figures are for all churches, and not just evangelical ones, the data from Canada shows that Evangelical Churches have similar attendance ratios to all Protestant churches. The issue is that as Evangelical churches go through the generational horizon that we see is about to happen from the ARIS Data, those churches will become less and less viable.
I read a study a number of years ago that showed that when a church hired a second (associate) pastor, that the related increase in attendance and its accompanying tithing paid for the second pastor on average within 18 months. (I was graduating from seminary at the time, and tried to use the study to get churches to hire me. 
) The converse is also true. Once a church starts a slide and is forced to lay off pastoral staff, or go to part-time or lay pastors, it is an extremely hard trend to reverse. Churches are going to have to make some difficult decisions, and for some it is going to mean closing their doors.
3. Two of the beneficiaries will be the Roman Catholic and Orthodox communions
According to the ARIS report, Catholics have grown by 24% between 1990 and the present day. This growth was very regionalized and fueled by immigration as the following quotation shows:
Catholic numbers and percentages rose in many states in the South and West mainly due to immigration from Latin America. Catholics increased their share in California and Texas to about one-third of the adult population and in Florida to over one-fourth. In terms of numbers they gained about 8 million adherents in these three states in the past two decades. At the same time the proportion of Catholics was eroded in other parts of the country, mainly in the Northeast Region, where Catholic adherents fell from 43 percent to 36 percent of the adult population. New England had a net loss of one million Catholics. Big losses in both the number of Catholic adherents and their proportion occurred also in Massachusetts, and in Rhode Island, the nation’s most heavily Catholic state where the proportion of Catholics dropped from 62 percent to 46 percent. New York state lost 800,000 Catholics and they dropped from 44% to 37% of the adult population.
The age composition of the Catholic church is virtually identical to the general population meaning that they are not facing a generational horizon. So the Catholics will benefit from the Evangelical collapse in that they should have stable numbers over the next decade and will become a larger proportion of the Christian community, and thus will have a larger voice from within that community. (Please do not get into arguments over the definition of Christian here, as it is really tangential to the purpose of the post.)
The question of whether they will be beneficiaries of the evangelical collapse numerically would still be open to debate. The previous ARIS study of 2001 as reported at ReligiousTolerance.org showed that in the dynamic movement of individuals in and out and between denominations, Catholics lost twice as many adherents as they gained. Unfortunately the question that generated this data was not asked during the current ARIS study, so we do not know if this number has changed.
Orthodox Christians still represent a tiny percentage of overall Christians in the U.S., but the data that has been supplied by ARDA shows some significant growth.
4. Charismatic-Pentecostal Christianity will become the majority report in evangelicalism
According to ARIS, Pentecostals / Charismatics have grown from 5,647,000 to 7,948,000 over the last 18 years, an increase of 41%. Their growth however has slowed somewhat over the last 7 years and they too are facing a generational horizon. Their horizon however, is not as bad as the Baptists. Numerically they will be hard pressed to be the most significant group in the Evangelical American world in forty years, but they will certainly be much stronger in relation to groups like the Baptists than they are today.
In one sense however, they are already the majority report, and that is in the area of worship. While I do not have the numbers for this, I am sure that most readers have seen that the vast majority of churches in the U.S. have adopted a more “charismatic/contemporary” style of worship. These days you would be hard pressed to differentiate the worship style between many Baptist and Pentecostal churches.
5. Evangelicalism needs a “rescue mission” from the world Christian community.
Michael is not alone in this thought. Consider some of these thoughts and statistics as compiled by the Navigators organization.
According to George Barna: “With its 195 million unchurched people, America has become the new mission field. America has more unchurched people than the entire populations of all but 11 of the world’s 194 nations.”*
According to Lost in America, by Tom Clegg and Warren Bird, 2001: “The unchurched population in the United States is so extensive that, were it a nation, it would be the fifth-largest on the planet. . . . Researchers and analysts describe North America as the world’s third-largest mission field.”
According to Os Guiness, in World Evangelization, Vol. 18, No 65, 1993: “The three strongest national challenges to the Gospel in the modern world are Japan, Western Europe, and the United States.”
According to George Gallup in 1997, only ten years ago: “More than 44% of American adults 18 and over are unchurched; 120 million Americans have no substantial Christian memory.”
Barna affirms Gallup. Consider: “America’s secularization has gone from only 15% in the 1950s up to 40% in 2001; and headed for 60% percent by 2010!” (Secularization means basing the decisions of one’s life on a secular humanist, relativist moral world view. Judeo-Christian values and the Bible are no longer the moral foundation of decision making in life for the vast majority of Americans.)
According to America: An Emerging Mission Field in World Christian Encyclopedia, Second Edition p.27: “In 2000, the United States sent out 118,200 missionaries, but it also received 33,200. Ironically, the world’s largest missionary-sending country has now become the world’s largest missionary-receiving country.” Not to mention:
o The world’s largest Buddhist temple is located in Boulder, CO, USA!
o The world’s largest Muslim training center is in New York City, USA!
o The world’s largest training center for transcendental meditation is in Fairfield, Iowa, USA!According to Leighthon Ford, evangelist and Christian leader, “North America is now the largest mission field in the English-speaking world” (Cities’ and surrounding areas’ concentrated populations make them obvious targets for sharing the Gospel).
The number of churches in Chicago has decreased by 900 in the last 10 years! In many cases what were once churches are now condominiums.
Conclusion
I wrote these two posts in support of Michael, not because I, nor he for that matter, take any joy in what is going on. I hope that these can help serve as a wake up call to the Evangelical community that the status quo position is not a viable one. Many have asked where is the role of God and the Holy Spirit in all of this? Well I for one see this as a wake up call to pray, and to seek God’s direction and guidance in all of this. We believe in the good news of Jesus Christ and we want to see his name continued to be honored and lifted up.
Your thoughts and comments are welcome.
Michael Bell
Joshua Hearne
Tim Melton
Joel Black
Michael,
I appreciate this work very much, but I think the change in statistics is indicative of a shift away from the Gospel that really took place over 75 years ago. I think it’s only now that evangelical people are beginning to wake up to the fact that they’ve just been playing church and unfortunately their honest omission of their hypocrisy is not driving them to but away from the Gospel.
However, God’s best work has always been before dawn.
Brad
Michael Spencer’s analysis sounds awfully similar to the theory of secularization that sociologists proposed in the 1960’s and 1970’s. This theory broadly states that as modern society progresses, religion will indeed decline. Spencer attributes the erosion of evangelicalism to the “rising tide of secularism.” Spencer’s point is that given the external pressures facing evangelicalism, this movement will collapse. The assumption all religion will eventually fizzle out into oblivion is a generally accepted axiom. But recently, social scientists have begun to question this assumption given the rise of subjective spiritualities, growth of new religious movements, and the resurgence of religious fundamentalism. Most notably, the main proponents and originators of the secularization thesis, Peter Berger and Bryan Wilson, both recently recanted their views on secularization. Adding to that voice, Rodney Stark and William Bainbridge also both say the idea that a “religionless future is but an illusion.” (1)
My point is this: it’s presumptuous to say that evangelicalism will sputter out into nothingness given Spencer’s assumptions. “Evangelicalism” has always been a slippery term to define, and nowhere (either in Spencer’s analysis or your interpretation of Spencer’s research) was this nailed down. And even if we are to take on Bruce Babbington’s definition which observes four marks of what it means to be an evangelical, church affiliation figures nowhere in this definition. So the question remains. Is evangelicalism merely defined as affiliation and belonging to a structural institution as Spencer’s (and your) analyses seem to suggest? If this is really the mark of evangelicalism, then what makes evangelicalism different from Catholics, or mainline churches? I question this faulty assumption that “evangelicalism” can be categorized as merely institutional affiliation and attendance.
I will also argue here that while institutional belonging is indeed waning, belief in general is not. This has been observed by many social scientists. In fact, when institutional affiliation decreases, there is always a rise in alternative religious groups such as para-church organizations (say, campus ministries) (2). Again, if we understand the marks of evangelicalism to not include institutional affiliation, to jump to the conclusion that the decrease in church attendance is a definitive sign pointing to the decline of evangelicalism is a bit hasty. This is too much of a simplistic explanation of the decline in evangelicalism.
If this shift from institutional to loosely affiliated religious structure is indeed occurring in the U.S., then what I want to suggest here is that this shift is merely a transformation or a re-ordering of belonging and affiliation. It’s too soon to say whether evangelicalism will really sputter out. Structurally, evangelicalism may merely reorganize itself into something different in the future but all the while retaining the basic tenets of Babbington’s description of the movement. Historically, evangelicalism’s strength is re-inventing itself to adapt to new contexts and environment. The story of the rise of evangelicalism in the early 1700’s and its growth in this country illustrate the extraordinary resiliency of this movement.
Secondly, the statistics presented are indeed alarming and suggest the future of evangelicalism isn’t bright. It seems, however, these statistics merely provide a glimpse into the biological growth potential of the church. Statistics are just statistics. At the present, statistics cannot foresee future possibilities like an influx into evangelical churches and denominations (as a surge in immigration would provide). Furthermore, these statistics do not entertain evangelical conversions and baptisms that would increase church attendance and church life. Again, I want to call attention to the fact these numbers provides a picture of the physical and the institutional, and yet what’s unseen still remains unseen.
Thirdly, it is still unclear whether a decline in evangelicalism will truly benefit Catholic and Orthodox churches. As noted already, affiliation with religious institutions is shifting toward subjective forms of spirituality, both in Christian and non-Christian groups (3). Evangelicals may retain their spirituality while discard institutional belonging all together. And still, news abounds of the closing of parishes and dioceses, with the most recent closing notable in Cleveland, Ohio. (4)
What Spencer has observed is indeed a decline in church attendance. Again, what I will argue is that the future of evangelicalism is not so much a sputtering death, but perhaps we are witnessing the transformation of a movement into a new expression, something we have yet defined yet. Evangelicalism is extraordinarily adaptive, and given the current challenge of a changing social landscape, it will no doubt remake itself. The prevailing postmodern context is in large parts reordering traditional religion – that of evangelicalism – into a new religiosity. (5) Given the challenges of a changing social landscape, it’s up to the church to be watchful, prayerful, and alert to speak and act in truth and grace in Christ’s name.
(1) See for example, Rodney Stark, “Secularization, R.I.P.,” Sociology of Religion 60, no. 3 (Fall 1999): 249-273; Peter Berger, “The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics” (Eerdmans, 1999); Rodney Stark and William Bainbridge, “The Future of Religion” (University of California Press, 1985)
(2) Grace Davie, “Predicting Religion: Christian, Secular and Alternative Futures” (Ashgate, 2003)
(3) Robert Wuthnow, “After Heaven: Spirituality in America Since the 1950’s” (University of California Press, 1998)
(4) See “Cleveland parishes may close but Catholic church will be resurrected within all of us: Regina Brett” by Regina Blett, Plain Dealer, Sunday, March 15, 2009.
(5) Daniele Hervieu-Leger “Secularization, Tradition and New Forms of Religiosity” in Religions and New Religiosity (Aarhus University Press, 1988)
Hi Steve,
Thanks for the thoughtful post. However, if you go back to Michael Spencer’s original articles you will find that you have made the same incorrect assumption that many of his readers jumped to, that is that Michael S. was predicting the death of Evangelicalism. In fact, he was only predicting its decline.
So, for example when you write that “Again, what I will argue is that the future of evangelicalism is not so much a sputtering death, but perhaps we are witnessing the transformation of a movement into a new expression, something we have [not] defined yet.”
In the original post Michael S. wrote: “We can rejoice that in the ruins, new forms of Christian vitality and ministry will be born. I expect to see a vital and growing house church movement. This cannot help but be good for an evangelicalism that has made buildings, numbers, and paid staff its drugs for half a century. We need new evangelicalism that learns from the past and listens more carefully to what God says about being His people in the midst of a powerful, idolatrous culture. ”
Sounds like you are on the same page on that item.
You also noted that “Thirdly, it is still unclear whether a decline in evangelicalism will truly benefit Catholic and Orthodox churches. ” I agree completely. In the post above I noted that: “The question of whether they will be beneficiaries of the evangelical collapse numerically would still be open to debate. The previous ARIS study of 2001 as reported at ReligiousTolerance.org showed that in the dynamic movement of individuals in and out and between denominations, Catholics lost twice as many adherents as they gained. Unfortunately the question that generated this data was not asked during the current ARIS study, so we do not know if this number has changed.”
You also wrote: “At the present, statistics cannot foresee future possibilities like an influx into evangelical churches and denominations (as a surge in immigration would provide). Furthermore, these statistics do not entertain evangelical conversions and baptisms that would increase church attendance and church life. Again, I want to call attention to the fact these numbers provides a picture of the physical and the institutional, and yet what’s unseen still remains unseen.”
Again, I agree completely. These posts show what would happen if “what is” continues, and as such are trying to serve as a wake-up call. Who knows how the Spirit might choose to move over the next 40 years? Who knows what immigration trends may impact these numbers? I know that in Canada for example, the fastest growing churches have been the Chinese churches, fueled both by immigration, and a desire for non-Christian immigrants to find community in a new land and culture.
As to your first commments (I have been going backwards here), ARIS shows that there has been a significant decline in belief as well.
I wanted to conclude this by saying that as I mentioned in my first post, I am generally look for the good things that are going on in the church, so these posts have been a departure for me. I do believe there is hope. The evangelical church in Canada is doing very well and has increased dramatically over the last 20 years. One of the reasons why we have done so much better compared to the U.S. trends, is that we have been a smaller and less influential group up here, and so have focused more on the gospel than the culture war.
Thanks again for your comments, I think you will find that our thoughts on the topic are not all that different.
Mike Bell
What a thought provoking series Mike! And the comment section itself invites comments.
God is spoken of in scripture as a gardener and as such He prunes and uproots what does not produce righteousness. I know this may sound like an over-simplification of your profound post, but it is what I see between the lines.
I like the reason you give for an increase in evangelicalism in Canada…we have “have focused more on the gospel than the culture war”. I think that is a key component. I left a church once because the pastor was a continual warrior for social good yet I never heard the gospel or any in-depth searching of scripture.
Thank you for making me think Mike!
Thanks Cynthia,
Always a pleasure to have you stop by.
Mike
Sorry, it’s David Bebbington, not Bruce Bebbington who first coin the four hallmarks of evangelicalism.
[...] In the US, conservative churches are still growing though not as rapidly as America’s fastest growing “religious group”: the unchurched. In light of statistical analyses, some evangelicals are already predicting the collapse of evangelical Christianity as evangelical churches approach a “generational horizon“. [...]
RE:”I read a study a number of years ago that showed that when a church hired a second (associate) pastor, that the related increase in attendance and its accompanying tithing paid for the second pastor on average within 18 months.”
I have *got* to get my hands on that study or something close to it. Can you give me clue where to find that kind of data?
Hi Chas,
I saw the study in 1992 or 1993, before the Internet got popular. No luck finding it again.
It “may” have come from Leadership magazine.
I tried a google search to see if I could come up with something similar, but no luck.
It would be an interesting study to redo.
middleman…
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[...]The Coming Evangelical Collapse – A Statistical Support – Part 2. « Eclectic Christian[...]…