By Michael Bell
The following post was originally published at InternetMonk.com.
Michael Spencer recently republished an article which looked at the problems that wealth creates for discipleship. He writes:
Have you ever thought about this? We are living in the most fabulously wealthy, excessively entertained and unimaginably prosperous nation in the history of the world. We have a standard of living, and a level of comfort, that much of the rest of the world cannot imagine…
The Jesus of the Gospel proclaims the promises of prosperity, real estate and parking places to be empty. If we will listen. He’s just as discomforting now as ever, unless we render him the harmless servant of our desires.
Rather than telling us about your best life now, Jesus talks over and over about persecution, sacrifice, voluntary poverty and laying down the images and symbols of success for the lasting worth and influence of the Kingdom of Jesus.
In the story of the rich young ruler, Matthew 19:21-24, Jesus makes it clear that it is very difficult for the rich to enter the kingdom of heaven. It is so very true. When people are content in their present circumstances it is very difficult for them to hear the challenges of the gospel, and the demands of the Kingdom of God. This goes for both people with and without faith in God. For those with faith, it is a question of discipleship. For those without faith it is a question of evangelism.
Recession changes all that.
Recession turns peoples lives upside down. It helps them realize that they don’t have a sufficiency unto themselves. Not having a job, not being able to pay the monthly bills, wondering where the grocery money will come from, these are all things that cause even those that are furthest from God to question their own self-sufficiency. They come to a point where they realize that they can’t do it by themselves. And here-in lies the message of the gospel: We can’t do it by ourselves. Jesus had to die for our sins, because in and of ourselves we are unable to meet God’s holy standard. In times of prosperity it is a very hard message to communicate. In recession, your audience has a new appreciation of what that means.
Therefore, recession provides new opportunities for evangelism.
A number of years ago I watched a film about Jim Jones and his People’s Temple cult. One of the things that struck me when watching the film was how they presented themselves as a caring community. When someone came to the church without a job, at the end of the service they were introduced to their new employer. When someone came to church without a place to stay, they were assisted with that. Every week church members wrote hundreds of letters to visitors thanking them for being a part of their service, and what a wonderful church it was.
I can remember people around me shaking their heads and saying how terrible these techniques were. All the time I was thinking to myself, “Are you kidding me? If we did things like this our churches would be bursting at the seams!”
Recession and unemployment do impact our churches, and so one question to be considered is what sort of impact does unemployment have?
The leader in analyzing this has been David Beckworth, Assistant Professor of Economics at Texas State University. His study, published in late 2007, was entitled “Praying for a Recession: The Business Cycle and Protestant Church Growth.” Unfortunately the study is quite difficult to read for those who do not have a statistics or economics background. However, it was picked up by the New York Times in December of 2008, and subsequently by bloggers like Ed Stetzer. David updated his study in January of 2009, adding additional information and analysis. I wanted to take a further look at it, and pull apart the study a bit more than the Times and others did, hopefully, to explain in fairly simple terms what implications the study has for the church today.
David analyzed three sets of data. The first set was from a survey done by the Pew Charitable Trust in 2001 that looked at weekly attendance. According to the study, the probability of person attending church on any given Sunday was about 42%. It should be noted that surveys where people self report church attendance always trend higher than actual counts of people in church. That being said, it gave a baseline that David could use to look at four groups of people: Employed Evangelical Protestants, Unemployed Evangelical Protestants, Employed Non-Evangelical Protestants, and Unemployed Non-Evangelical Protestants.
According to the survey, an employed evangelical was roughly 20% more likely to attend church than the general population, a number that we should not find that surprising. The interesting number is that unemployed evangelicals were roughly 27 to 29% more likely to attend church than the general population. In other words, evangelicals that were unemployed were 7 to 9% more likely to attend church than their employed fellow church members.
For other Protestants we saw similar results. Those employed Protestants who were not Evangelical were less likely to attend church. Their attendance was roughly 12 to 13% lower than the national average. However, unemployed non-Evangelical Protestants were 12 to 13% more likely to attend church than their employed fellow church members.
So unemployment definitely has a significant positive effect on church attendance, no matter what flavor of Protestant you might happen to be. We might want to ask ourselves, if the unemployed are coming to our churches in greater numbers, what are we doing to help the obvious needs of the unemployed in our midst.
Recession also brings opportunities and by examining historical data we can see what impact recession has had on church growth.
David Beckworth’s data for church membership comes from an annual publication, “The State of Church Giving”. He found that this publication had consistent data on 14 Evangelical denominations and 11 mainline Protestant denominations between the years 1968 and 2004. The graph of the membership in these 25 denominations is reproduced below.
As can be seen from the graph, the trend in memberships in Evangelical denominations is up, and the trend in memberships in mainline Protestant denominations is down. This is true for the entire time span. Close observation will note that growth in the Evangelical denominations is much steeper/faster in the earlier years than it is in the later years. This is a concern for the Evangelical Church that both Michael Spencer and I have noted in previous essays as other data has shown that the Evangelical trend is likely to reverse itself and we will start to see declines. Over the entire time span however, the Evangelical denominations averaged a growth of 1.1% per year, while the mainline denominations averaged a decline of .94% per year. These are the base numbers that David Beckworth uses for his analysis.
When we divide the growth in Evangelical denomination between years in which there was no recession and years in which a recession occurred, we have another interesting observation. Growth for Evangelicals in non recession years was .98%, where as the growth rate for Evangelicals during years of recession was 1.52%. In other words Evangelicals grew 55% faster (1.52 / .98) during years of recession than in years of non-recession.
What is interesting is that mainline denominations did not see this same effect. There was statistically no real difference between recession and non-recession years. Why they did not see the same “bump” as the evangelicals is hard to ascertain. Perhaps it is easier to build on growth, as in the Evangelical case, than it is to reverse decline.
What about other economic shocks?
Beckworth found that for Evangelical Protestants, other economic factors like the unemployment rate, oil prices, real stock prices, and the difference between short and long term bond rates (an economic predictor) all impacted in a significant way on Church growth.
For mainline churches, most other economic factors did not have that much of an impact. The exception to this was stock prices. With stock prices, the effect was the opposite of what you might expect. As stock prices rose, membership rose (or actually declined less), with the converse also being true. This was the opposite effect that stock prices have on Evangelical congregations. Beckworth surmises that this is the case because mainline Christians on average are in a higher socio-economic class and as such are able to benefit more (in terms of available time) from the income and wealth effects that a rising stock market brings.
How long do these impacts last?
From the previous set of data along with 57 years of quarterly data that Beckworth had for the Seventh Day Adventists, he was able to show that the impact of the economic shocks were significant and generally lasted one and a half years beyond the date when the shock had ended. In the case of an increase in the unemployment rate for example, the greatest effect on membership/converts occurs one year after the initial shock and last another six months beyond that. So with the rise that we are now seeing in unemployment rates, our Evangelical churches may see a positive benefit from it until at least the end of 2010 or the beginning of 2011 (depending of course when we hit bottom.) From both the data from the Evangelical denominations along with the further data from the Seventh Day Adventists, it can be shown that one third of all church growth can be directly attributable to economic shocks.
So what does it matter?
As we are know in the midst of a full blown recession, there are great opportunities for both Evangelicals and mainline Christians to reach out to those who are hurting. As Michael Spencer said in his original post, “Jesus talks over and over about persecution, sacrifice, voluntary poverty and laying down the images and symbols of success for the lasting worth and influence of the Kingdom of Jesus.” I have heard the expression before that “people want a hand up, not a handout.” A recession is our opportunity to come alongside those in difficulty and show them that not only does Jesus care, but we care too. It is also our opportunity to tell them about about the ultimate sacrifice that Jesus was willing to make for a world that could not help itself.
Michael Bell
Joshua Hearne
Tim Melton
Joel Black
Apr 6, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Hey Mike
Although I commented on this when it appeared on internet monk, I also wanted to refer here to your thoughts after watching the movie about Jim Jones. I had a very similar response to a Canadian made movie about the Moonies (it had the name “Heaven” in the title???). I looked at the way they all cared for each other and lavished love, expressing their bond in extravagent ways. And I thought “They have tapped into a vital secret”.
Apr 7, 2009 at 1:24 am
1st. Church needs to be a community. Almost a commune, without the junk the 60’s put on the word.
2nd I wonder how Catholic churches fair in recession. In my area there are many RC church closings, and most ,not all, RC are social members. Any info?
Apr 7, 2009 at 1:29 am
Agree on the community part. It is the number one factor in church growth.
The question is, are they closed communities or open communities. When we were looking for a church, we tried one very close by that had a reputation of being a very good community. The problem was they were such an established community that they were no longer open to outsiders.
Apr 7, 2009 at 8:56 am
We aren’t concerned about growth…at all.
Our concern is getting the gospel to a sin-soaked world that needs to hear that they are forgiven for Jesus’ sake.
If a by product is growth, that is great.
More often than not we have found that our message that Christ forgives you (with no strings attached) is just not enough.
People nowadays love to be handed a list of do’s and don’ts and a project to work on.
Those types of “churches” in our area are flourishing.
The ‘How To’ churches (law churches) are growing, and the ‘It’s All Been Done for You’ churches are shrinking.
Nothing has changed in two thousand years.
Apr 7, 2009 at 9:32 am
To add some clarity to the matter I have reposted a comment I made at InternetMonk.com.
After thinking a little more about some of the comments that have been made here, I thought it would be helpful to make a couple things a little clearer.
I am a numbers guy. Unashamedly so. And if my analysis of numbers can help us understand ourselves a little better an be prepared for changes, both positive and negative, then I am happy to do so.
Having said that, Michael Spencer mentioned recently that he is working on a book, but doesn’t want that book to be about the “Coming Evangelical Collapse.” While I wrote a couple of posts in support of his statements, I strongly feel the same way.
Here is another statistical fact. Churches that are caring communities tend to grow, churches that are not caring communities tend to decline. Here is what I want to emphasize: We are to be caring communities because Christ commands us to be so. “Love one another as I have loved you.” We don’t do it because it will make our churches bigger.
Cynthia, made a great point when commenting at InternetMonk: “Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the majority of our growth came always from churches living out a Christ like commision?”
That is what is at the heart of my blogging. That healthy churches will focus on making healthy disciples, through an emphasis on the good news of Jesus Christ.
David Beckworth made the rather callous comment in his paper that churches should pray for recession, for recession brings church growth. When I read that I thought, I could never do that. I could never pray that neighbors would lose jobs, or health insurance. I could never pray that people would struggle to put food on the table. That is in no way Christ like.
What I will pray is that when recession inevitably comes, as it is here right now, that churches will become truly aware of the needs around them. (The primary reason for this post.) I will pray that churches respond in Christ like ways, seeking to minister to people and meet their needs.
And I will rejoice with the angels when as a result of churches ministering to their communities, souls are added to the Kingdom of God.
Mike Bell
Apr 7, 2009 at 9:35 am
Steve,
I think that Christ’s exhortation “Come to me all who are weary and heavy laden, and I will give your rest” is an important message to communicate in trying times.
My previous comment answers your concerns about growth.
Mike
Apr 7, 2009 at 9:42 am
Mike,
The reason that I am not a “numbers guy” is that when you start to think in those terms it can much more easily lead into things that are pleasing to man. It is much easier to give in to the culture with big screens and rock bands and ‘cool looking’ preachers and hip coffee bars, etc. The church can easily (when it gets to that point) have an appeal to just one demographic. I see this all the time where i live.
From there, it is a very short trip to get away from pure Law/Gospel preaching into…whatever.
The culture is always wrong when it comes to the things of God.
I believe the church ought be counter-cultural even if it means that many will not like that or be “comfortable” there.
Thanks, Mike!
Apr 7, 2009 at 9:58 am
Steve,
“The culture is always wrong when it comes to the things of God.”
I think I disagree with you here. Missionaries took a long time to realize that they needed to distinguish between what was cultural and biblical, cultural and non-biblical, and what was cultural and about which scripture was silent.
I don’t have a problem with “big screens” and “rock bands”. Both my 14 year old son and I are what you would call “visual learners”, and having power point to follow along with the sermon helps both of us to stay focused. While I appreciate many types of music, my son made the following comment when visiting my sister-in-laws church. “Why do they play music who’s sole purpose seems to be to try and put you to sleep just as the sermon is starting?”
Apr 7, 2009 at 10:47 am
Using the culture to open doors into a community is alright. But allowing that community to define the church is wrong.
The church should always do the defining of itself.
We have a culture that hates the church and we let it into the door to redefine who we are.
Big screens and rock bands play into our emotions.
Our emotions may be fine but they should not be the driving force behind our worship or our faith.
The Word that comes to us from outside of ourselves is what we need, not necessarily what we like or what we want.
The beat can overwhelm the message quite easily.
Usually in places where the church has given in to our comfort level, there follows a giving in to the erosion of core doctrines of the church.
For example, in most of these places, the altar is quickly removed and the replaced by a stage with band instruments. And the vestments of the pastor are replaced by hip shirts, or Hawaiin shirts (here in San Clemente). So now, the church looks just like the culture.
The Word is watered down into a neat set of propositions and the sacraments are devalued into pure symbolism, dependent upon your sincerity or emotions.
I don’t know about up there, but down here you can’t find the Living Word of God at the mall, or the movie theater or at the sports complex.
Most of these culturally relevant churches end up with a bunch of modern day Pharisees who actually believe they are living up to God’s expectations, or they turn into pious phonies who are just playing along because they want to fit in.
I am painting with a broad brush here, but I have seen this phenomenon in every one of these culturally relevant churches that I have been to in my area.
Apr 7, 2009 at 11:33 am
My hope for the reccessionis that it makes people hip to the idea that wealth is transitory and fickle. I have heard lots of people are turning to the church for support both spiritual and finacial. While begging may seem to be a low reason to go to church, it will introduce people to the idea that somepeople find fulfilment in giving and not just taking. Our society worships celebrities and entertainers and judges its worth by Escalades and I-Pods. This mentality led to our reccession, but it might make us better people in the long run.
On church growth, while Jesus often said his people were the few among many, he also said they would grow many times over. The mentallity that the church will always be the few so if no one listens that means were on the right page is misleading. It may be that you preach a bad version of the Gospel. I would also say the culture is a neutral medium. the first christian went into the world with only the culture around them. They had to be Jews to Jews, Greeks to Greeks, and Romans to Romans. To say the first step in coming to the Gospel is change your speach, change your music, and change your clothes, is a bad approach.
Apr 7, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Wow mikelioso,
We are agreeing on this! This is unusual for us.
Mike
Apr 7, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Here is a comment of interest that I just posted on Internet Monk
Patrick,
“is there data on the characteristics of joiners during recession times at all though?”
We do have data on how people have changed their religious belief which was asked during the 2001 ARIS survey. (Incidentally also taken during an economically depressed time.) You can see the data here. Pages 24 or 25 are the significant ones for this question. The question was asked if people used to have a different religious belief.
Only 1.1 million (roughly .5 of one percent) said that they had ever switched from No-Religion to something else. So any other growth that denominations would have had would have been from other churches, or nominal Christians returning to their church roots. They study in the current post shows that their has been a huge shift from mainline churches to Evangelical churches. There has also been a huge shift to no-religion, probably at the expense of mainline and catholic churches. (People are leaving evangelical churches too, but the inflows have been greater than the outflows to this point in time.)
By comparing data between the 1990 and 2001 ARIS and then look at the transfer numbers, we can see that all the Catholic growth can be attributed to immigration.
So to answer your question, I think it does primarily involve people coming back to church, but not necessarily the church of their youth.
I hope this helps, trying to grasp who is moving where can be really hard to peg down numerically without reanalyzing the raw data.
Apr 8, 2009 at 10:37 am
“The deepest need of men is not food and clothing and shelter, important as they are. It is God. We have mistaken the nature of poverty and thought it was economic poverty. No, it is poverty of soul, deprivation of God’s recreating, loving peace. Peer into poverty and see if we are really getting down to our deepest needs, in our economic salvation schemes. These are important. But they lie farther along the road, secondary steps toward world reconstruction. The primary step is a holy life, transformed and radiant in the glory of God.”
Thomas R. Kelly, A Testament of Devotion, page 123.
Our economic recession began in a recession of the soul. If our hearts were filled with the Holy Spirit, we would be so freed from financial foolishness that we would not have established lifestyles, personally and nationally, that we now know are practically unsustainable, politically divisive, economically backward and perhaps even militarily risky.
The most relevant message to our nation today, and to ourselves, is personal repentance, confession of sin, newness of life and hope in the gracious promises of God in Christ.
Apr 8, 2009 at 11:08 am
Ike
Wow! Amen!
Apr 8, 2009 at 11:36 am
This is all so timely as Newsweek is announcing the end of Christian America, we’re a paltry 75% of the nation. A bit premature to herald the end. On the other hand the Numbers I’ve seen for regular church attendance is 20% and actually tithing is at a robust 3% of church members. I figure actually attempting to live as Christ would have you is about in the same range(but calculating that is out anyone’s ability but God I suppose) As the Powers of the World have been more and more lax about forcing confessions of faith, it makes sense the number of people who would claim affiliation with a religion that doesn’t accommodate their lifestyle would drop. If you want them back you need to introduce Big Money Hustla’ Jesus.